Four years ago I returned with energy and hope to be part of a process of change for the better, only to find that during this period, things changed dramatically for the worse. Of course the neighboring war in Syrian contributed greatly to this decline, but the political paralysis was due to the behavior of the leading political figures and groups and their disrespect for the constitution and the exercise of their own responsibilities over that period of time. I am hoping that with the election of The President this will all change. The preceding period led to a failing state, a flat and dangerously declining economy and non-existent social welfare.
 
In addition, most of the institutions are still functioning on life-support. The process of Democracy has not yet been restored since parliament extended its own mandate twice in a row. The present talk of another extension is a further indication that Democracy is still perceived as the handmaiden of the politicians instead of it being the dictate of the Constitution.

In the recent municipal elections where voter turn out was only on average 40%, which tells us that the majority of the results obtained were partial at best, and not representative of the whole population as some claim. In fact, the only thing that such a low turn-out represents is the overall disappointment and rejection by the population of the existing political configuration. Though it was refreshing to see new movements of dissension arise, it was equally depressing to see them overcome everywhere by the habitual format of political outcomes due to voter complacency.
 
The worst feeling that any person wanting to contribute to his or her country feels today is the sense of inability to change anything and the fact that it is a closed system to newcomers because of the hegemony of the existing oligarchies which has been institutionalized by an electoral law that is construed to protect their monopoly on power and a function of the ruling classes’ entrenchment and reluctance to change anything, even when confronted with revolt, as during the summer of last year at the time when the waste management crisis was at its peak.

The inclination and tendency therefore will be to proceed with Parliamentary elections based on the law of 1960, which guarantees that the control of the political establishment will continue as it is.
 
If Lebanon is ever allowed to emerge from the stagnation it is facing it will only happen through the arrival of a new political class to power. I believe that are three ways to do this:
 
1-) Make elections mandatory for all Lebanese between the age of 18 and 80 in order to force people out of their lethargy and resignation.
 
2-) Bring back the number of deputies to 108 as specified in Taef and remove the 20 deputies added during the Syrian occupation which are not representative of their constituents.
 
3-) Enact an electoral law based on proportional representation with large districts to break geographic and confessional hegemonies, or a one-man one-vote system to reflect the more accurate national role of legislators.
 
If the present leaders proceed with the law of 1960, I guarantee you that the inertia will persist and there will be no recourse to bring about change for the next 4 years. I do not recommend that this be allowed to happen.
 
The big battle ahead of us now is to say no to the majority law of 1960 and to fight for the three solutions outlined above.

The recent nomination of the deputy Sleiman Frangieh took everyone by surprise because of the seeming ripple of movement that it generated in an otherwise stifled environment surrounding the election of a President in Lebanon, added to that was the unexpected concession of those against the regime in Syria to support such an uncontested ally and friend of President El-Assad.
Let us start in the beginning where suddenly out of nowhere, rumors began circulating about a secret visit between Frangieh and former Prime Minister Saad Harriri in Paris. As is the case in Lebanon, there is very rarely smoke without fire and the rumor finally emerged as being correct.
There has been much speculation about how this meeting came about; Whether the meeting was planned or spontaneous and whether Frangieh communicated the relevant information of this encounter to his strongest ally Hezbollah ahead of time is still debatable, but what is clear is that after the meeting he certainly informed them about the discussions that were held and the seriousness of Hariri's proposal.
The talks between the men covered the details of his presidency including the matter of an electoral law which both agreed would have to remain as it is today to preserve the interests of the parties involved.
The news of the meeting triggered a flurry of reactions as the shock waves of this collusion spread out into the Lebanese political pond.
While some navigated the news eagerly, including the international community who saw an acceptable opportunity to resolve the political vacuum, others were rocked at their core by the implications of such a possibility.
The outcome of all the deliberations is that the only clear thing about Frangieh's candidacy to-date is that it is unclear. It is unclear for many reasons including:
1- General Aoun firm rebuttal:
The validity of Frangieh's candidacy is being rebuffed with the belief that if a candidate with Frangieh's affiliations are acceptable then the preference goes to General Aoun.
2- Saad Hariri's slowness to declare:
The delay of Hariri's visit to Lebanon seems to be linked to the larger implications surrounding the matter of his security. Maybe indeed Hariri feels he can only return to Lebanon with an ally such as Frangieh because of his close ties to the Syrian regime which would grant him a degree of safety.
3- Hezbollah's silence:
This is a reflection of their own conundrum confronted with on of their favored candidates becoming problematic. This dilemma was brought about because of their engagement with General Aoun and the fear of his retaliation and retrenchment into a Christian-only front if challenged by Frangieh's accession to the presidency.
For Hezbollah, this would lead to their loss of a powerful ally on the ground and create a dangerous confessional polarization at a time when Lebanon can least afford such antagonistic stances. In Parliament this would also fragment their voting coalition and leave them without Christian representation. If they are to reconsider Frangieh's candidacy it would certainly be tied into their insistence on a new electoral law which would not perpetuate the existing balance of power.
3- Samir Geagea's isolation:
Geagea is certainly not a proponent of Frangieh's candidacy viewing their bloody history and they rivalry in the North of the country. Frangieh's nomination has left Geagea publicly isolated from his own political bloc confronted with the uncoordinated nomination of a candidate from "the other side" by Saad Hariri, the leader of his block.
The tensions that had been suspected for some time between Geagea and Hariri were suddenly laid out for everyone to see. This has forced Geagea into a retaliatory stance where he is measuring the consequences of displeasing his Saudi sponsors and gambling with the threat to nominate Aoun to avoid Frangieh.
4- Saudi Arabia's timidity:
The lack of any declaration by Saad Harirri to-date ostensibly leads us to believe that Hariri has not received the reassurances he needs, both financial or otherwise, to push this deal through at this time. The Prime Ministery would bring with it financial rewards and would help him get back on his feet because it is fair to note that with the change of leadership in Saudi Arabia, the Hariri that Frangieh is negotiating with is not the same Hariri that Aoun was negotiating with a year and a half ago.
The question therefor begs to be asked: How much favor does Hariri really carry today with the King and specifically with the Crown Prince?
To sum up why things are so unclear, it is because the usual lines of identification have been crisscrossed. The leader of the March 14 movement proposed a March 8th candidate unilaterally, and the allies of each group lost their points of reference in the process.
It is fair to say that both protagonists, Frangieh and Hariri, are in fact being undermined mostly by their own camps. However, Hariri is as prone to veto as Frangieh since his rights to the premiership are also contested, not his only by rivals in his own camp but much more importantly by the Syrian regime and President El-Assad because of the seriousness of the unresolved past issues between them.
On the scale of Lebanon, this latest attempt has placed the March duality into the mixer and whatever will come out now in the next week or so, will never be the same. Expectations have been shattered and feathers ruffled on all sides.
It will take some time for this dust to settle but if it does settle into nothing again then the matter of the election of a President will also turn to dust in the short term which, would be a lost opportunity for Lebanon.
 
 
Tracy Chamoun
Baabda – December 2015

  
عندما يتم تمويل أي تلفزيون كي يبقي هواؤه مفتوحاً بهدف النقل المباشر للمظاهرات الأخيرة، يكون قد ساهم بشكلٍ غير مقصود بالتقليل من شأن الثورة بوضعها في خانة تليفزيون الواقع. فقد أدى هذا الهواء المفتوح والمتواصل عبر وسائل الإعلام إلى خلق منبر حيث بات بإستطاعة أي كان من نيل بضع ثوانٍ من الشهرة مقدماً كلمة مرتجلة كمتنفس لغضبه الصادق والمحق. لكن ما من شيء دون مقابل؛ فقد كان لكل هذا أثرٌ سلبي فتحولت الثورة الموعودة إلى نشاز وأهداف متعارضة. 
 
كان هذا وصفٌ لما حدث خلال الشهر الفائت. فبدل من ثورة بشعاع الليزر، رأينا مصابيح صغيرة مضاءة هنا وهناك. 
 
على الرغم من كل ذلك، كم من مرةٍ يجب رفع مواضيع القرف والإستياء تلك في وجه آذان صماء؟! الفساد، سوء الإدارة، سوء إستعمال السلطة، سرقة المال العام، إنعدام الشفافية، التمييز، المحسوبيات والزبائنية، كلها شكاوى تتساقط كالشتاء على أرضٍ جافة. في أي وقتٍ من الأوقات، يتم إبتلاع تلك الأصوات ضمن عملية الهضم في النظام اللبناني كما يتم وضعها على الحياد وإستيعابها في عملية التمثيل الغذائي. 
 
في البداية، بدا واضحاً إنزعاج بعض المسؤولين من تلك الأصوات. لكن مع مرور الأيام وتبدل التسونامي الثوري الشعبي ليصبح فقط منبراً للإعتراض المرتجل، إرتاحوا إلى ذلك المنظر وتنفسوا الصعداء وعادوا إلى أماكن راحتهم - قلاعهم المحصنة.
 
تطورت تلك القلاع على مدى العشرين عاماً المنصرمة متلاعبةً بأجهزة الدولة. لذا، لا يمكن كسر هذا الجدار المحصن من خلال تظاهرات سلمية. وإذا كان العنف غير مطروحاً (علماً بأنه لا يمكن صنع عجة البيض دون كسر البيض)، فما هي خياراتنا من أجل مواصلة الضغط على كارتيلات السلطة لإجبارهم على التغيير؟ 
 
الحل الأبسط والأسهل حالياً في لبنان هو إنتخاب رئيس للجمهورية موثوق وذات مصداقية، الشيء الذي من شأنه أن يطلق سلسلة أحداث منها حكومة جديدة، قانون إنتخابي جديد ينتج برلماناً جديداً! 
رغم أن موقع رئاسة الجمهورية في الواقع خسر الكثير من صلاحياته التي تشكل ضمانةً وليس إمتيازاً، لكنه برهن عن أهميته وقوته في فراغه. انها الآلية الوحيدة التي ما زالت لها نقاط تأثير ويجب الإستفادة منها محلياً ودولياً من أجل كسر الجمود؛ وإلا سنشهد استدامة المنظومة الحالية المغلقة والممددة لنفسها وغير المتأثرة بالظروف الداخلية والخارجية والمغلفة بإستبداد السلطة الحاكمة.
 
 * رئيسة حزب "الديمقراطيون الأحرار"
* ترايسي داني شمعون

 
When a certain TV network was funded to keep their airwaves open and broadcast the demonstrations live, they inadvertently contributed to trivialize the revolution into an ongoing reality TV show. This constant media access gave birth to the Lebanese soapbox where everyone and anyone had their 15 seconds of fame delivering impromptu speeches to vent their honest and valid discontent. This had the adverse effect of turning the promise of a revolution into a cacophony of conflicting objectives instead.
 
It unfortunately showed that democracy at its best in the form of the airing of free speech is like a sieve, which allows for pressure to be released through unrestrained expression. But in this way it also diffuses the intensity of the message by giving it many voices. This is what happened over the last month. Instead of a laser like revolution we experienced small bulbs lighting here and there.
 
Nevertheless, how many times can the same serious subjects of discontent be raised on deaf ears? Corruption – mismanagement – abuse of power – stealing public funds – lack of transparency – discrimination – nepotism – clientelism - all these complaints fall like rain on dry land. In no time at all, these sound bites are swallowed in the Lebanese process of digestion and its metabolism of absorption.
 
Initially, the oligarchs were visibly ruffled by the accusations and huddled together to entrench in their seats of power, but as the days progressed and the soapbox replaced the popular tsunami of revolt, all the Zaims settled back into the comfort zone of their fortresses.
 
These fortresses have been erected over 20 years of manipulating the state apparatuses to ensure their institutionalized feudal hold on power through the cultivation of serfs instead of citizens protected equally under the law.
 
Therefore peaceful demonstrations cannot breakdown their walls of smugness. If violence is not an option  ( and yet even the simplest omelet is not made without breaking eggs ) then what are our choices to maintain the pressure on the establishment cartels to force them to change?
 
The only option we have is to return to basics. Ockham's razor (a principle attributed to the 14th century logician and Franciscan friar William of Ockham) states that "Entities should not be multiplied unnecessarily." Basically it means that if you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."
 
The simplest solution now in Lebanon, is to elect a new president, which will in itself launch a chain of predictive events including a new government, a new electoral law, and a new parliament obligatorily.
 
Though the Presidency in point of fact, is not strong in and of itself, it has proved to be strong in its vacuum. It is the only mechanism, which still has points of leverage. These must be applied domestically and internationally to break the stalemate. Otherwise the presently closed system of self-prorogated governing will perpetuate itself hermetically sealed by the tyranny of the institutionalized oligarchs.
 

​The politics of obstructionism – Lebanon forgotten

The dissension among the ruling blocs in Lebanese politics has become personal to such a degree that they automatically veto each other’s proposals just as a matter of principle. The confrontations are no longer even expressed on sectarian or political lines but seem to be completely personality related with one leader hating another and obstructing him out of spite or spreading malicious rumors just to score points over each other.

On the other hand, there are extremely urgent matters at hand, which need consensus urgently, including most importantly the matter of the solution to the crisis of garbage collection, but also, the health dangers which this situation poses, the safety of the water, the lack of electricity, the lack of jobs, the collapse of the economy, the Syrian displaced, the matter of wages and salaries increases, the cost of living. These are some of the few essential survival issues confronting Lebanon and the population today.

And yet the bipartisanship is centering around the issue of giving Lebanese immigrants the Lebanese nationality, which by the way fails to address the major women's issue of Lebanese women giving their nationality to their children if married to a foreigner, and the elaboration of an electoral law which though important will not stop people from dying on the streets of the plague due to the rats and rotting waste everywhere.

You have to ask today: Why would the Lebanese abroad even want a Lebanese nationality? When the country is in such a shameful and disgusting mess.

As for a new electoral law? It is very important certainly, but the Zaims won’t even agree on the geography of landfills, how are they going to agree to a law that promises to weaken their hold on their regions.

These polemics are preventing the Parliament, as illegal as it is, as well as the Cabinet of Ministers from coalescing and taking any practical decisions. These deputies who had the audacity to extend their own mandates continue to add offense to injury by getting paid to do nothing. As for their salaries unlike the rest of the poor deprived population, it seems that the matter was solved with one wave of their magic self-serving wand - Yet again!

This is an untenable situation and the constant bickering and petty obstructionism is costing us our nation. The deputies have one essential job to do today: Elect a President! But there are no deadlines, no attendance requirements, no penalties for absenteeism, no consequences for ineptitude! The bottom line is that there is no leverage mechanism to force them to comply! So they continue to do what they do best: Nothing.

This politics of obstructionism is shameful and betrays the concept of statesmanship, which is so lacking today: The idea that there is a moral obligation to overcome one’s ego for the greater good. As we are carried along on this fateful period of continuing and unabated internal discord and brinkmanship, we may as well dig two graves one for us and one for Lebanon...
 
 
 
 

 
The latest deadline set as an objective by all the Lebanese factions was the nuclear deal signed between the P5+1 countries and Iran (The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) on July 1, 2015, but like most political deadlines in the Lebanese political landscape, its more of a mirage in the desert, which once passed, disappears along with any promise.
 
Nevertheless, the nuclear deal is a huge psychological tipping point, and either Lebanon can use it as a breakthrough to re-launch its political dynamic with the election of a president that will reset the constitutional counter at zero, or it will continue towards a breakdown with every institution being successively, negatively impacted.
 
The single major psychological benefit of the conclusion of the deal, is the sense of relief that is over. People can finally situate themselves on either side of the regional fence.
 
This sense of relief in itself should be used as a catalyst for a breakthrough because it is time to admit that for Lebanon, the solution to the present presidential deadlock and the continuing disintegration of the state is as much an internal problem as it believed to be external one.
 
If a solution is to be found to this crisis it should be done as soon as possible while the momentum of relief is still present, because realistically, the impact of the nuclear deal itself will have minimal effect on Lebanon due to the existing power sharing structure which is already in place in the Ta’ef accord. It operates as a de facto “Triumvirate”- Regardless of whether we are able to elect a president or not, the seat is in essence for the Christians.
 
Furthermore, the questions on everybody’s mind are: Will Hezbollah gain strength as a result of this deal? The answer is: Hezbollah is already strong, and will the Sunni community be disenfranchised? The answer is: The Sunni community is institutionalized like every other confessional community in Lebanon, and therefore its rights protected.
 
On the matter of the presidency: Will it push the deputies to elect a president? Not unless the deal is like the Ta’ef or Doha accords where the name of a candidate was part of the overall settlement package. But the truth of the matter is, that even if the deal is cooked from the outside, it still has to be served “mezze-style” in Lebanon to satisfy everyone’s taste.
 
In conclusion: There are no more mirages in sight and we must face the blatant reality of our political drought and do something about this as Lebanese, or face breakdown...
 
 
Tracy Chamoun
President
The Liberal Democrats
Baabda 7-20-15

As we sit in the middle of this terrible sand storm which originated in Iraq and Syria we can only be forced to pay attention to the omens. The way of clarity is certainly not available at this time. We are still in the churning of chaos. At times like these it is is wise to retreat. Words are precious and must not be wasted in fruitless dialogues that seek only to appropriate and neuter the emergence of change. The popular revolt being expressed in Lebanon is being fought against from all sides, including accusations of external sponsorship, and now even the weather is conspiring to make the quest harder. The popular swell in its gravity and spontaneity forced reluctant Lebanese politicians to the table after a year of sulking and boycotting each other. However, did they come to the table to resolve their differences or to unite against a common enemy that threatens them? The revolution must go on...


As for me, sometimes only poetry can express the level of my dismay. Prose is too limiting, because it is in the gaps of the unsaid that the play of truth can emerge long enough to remind us of the things that need to be expressed. These are my thoughts this week.


"In the purgatory of delay
Lebanese politicians play
They maneuver to safeguard 
Their habitual charade
While the storm of sand
Uniformly covers the land
Angry citizens flail and fail
Public rage and political deceit 
Compete noisily on the street
In spontaneous demonstrations
And some other fabrications
But the stench of incompetence
Lies in garbage of big pretense 
Our Lebanon is made ill
Turned into a horrid landfill
Toxic smoke fills our struggling lungs
Replacing the sound of smoke guns
Rats roam and the plague nears
As every solution disappears
Because of the stupidity
Of the selfish and greedy 
Lebanon stares now at a calamity.
Will the people succeed?
Do the young have to bleed?
Is non-violence the way?
To get change underway? 
Through screams and tears
Or shots fired and angry jeers?
How can one even budge
The lords of waste and sludge
Who robed the nation
For their own glorification
With a sickening smile 
And pretending all the while
To be serving the weak 
When it is subservience they seek
Keeping people like sheep
Grateful for their token kindness
Confused by flattery and blindness
They rate their magnitude
By the volume of servitude 
These old power merchants 
Are paradises’ resident serpents
They should be held accountable
For ensuring that poverty is profitable
These flamboyant thieves 
Must be forced to leave
Only their names to remain 
A vestige of their corrupt reign 
In a dark corner of history
That is their failed failed legacy.


I still have to believe 
That though we cry -
The phoenix can still fly…"

​A President as the catalyst for change not the street.
 
Statement 9-3-15
 
As the screams rise there are no words left which have not yet been used to describe the abuse and neglect of the state towards its citizens.

Though change is in the air we must guard against chaos. The volatility of the environment and the element of unintended outcomes is a recipe for potential un-controllable escalation and deterioration.

The messages being communicated by the people though numerous and varied, can be condensed in the following: “Governmental neglect and abuse of power”. This applies to every sector and every policy implemented to-date for years. In addition, the lack of cohesion, unity and altruism by different leaders has lead to this impasse.

However, we have to distinguish between the call for change and the implementation of change. The call for change presently is from the ground up, but if the implementation of change happens in this way it usually provokes a fall into chaos.

Nevertheless, the call has been made, the anger has been shown, and the danger signs pointing to escalation have been flashed. Therefore it has become necessary to be proactive in order to prevent a breakdown of national security, and to safeguard the institutions, which are the last bastions of the Nation. The redistribution of power must be handled responsibly and from the top down.

In order to do this, a president of the Republic is the fist piece of the puzzle that should be placed on the board of change. Then, with the selection of a prime minister, a new cabinet must be formed reflecting the demands of the people with the first criteria being integrity and transparency.

Thereafter, there are two priorities, that have to be addressed above all:

1- Firstly: A national budget  to be delivered immediately, to scientifically resolve the matter of ranks and salaries.
2- Secondly: An electoral law to be ratified which will ensure full representation.
(For elections to take place let us not neglect the fact that the time must be taken to educate people in the application and implication of this new law.)
 
What the people are calling for is a total governmental vacuum before restitution. This is dangerous and threatens the procedural flow of the implementation of positive change. 
 
That is why the Presidency is the masterpiece of this puzzle and must be placed before all the other pieces to complete the full image of a new Lebanon that answers the popular outcry for accountability and commitment to social welfare.

Let us not be carried away by revolutionary sentiment but let us revolutionize our sentiment and act responsibly for once.

But act fast or else...
 
Tracy Chamoun
Baabda