The latest deadline set as an objective by all the Lebanese factions was the nuclear deal signed between the P5+1 countries and Iran (The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) on July 1, 2015, but like most political deadlines in the Lebanese political landscape, its more of a mirage in the desert, which once passed, disappears along with any promise.
Nevertheless, the nuclear deal is a huge psychological tipping point, and either Lebanon can use it as a breakthrough to re-launch its political dynamic with the election of a president that will reset the constitutional counter at zero, or it will continue towards a breakdown with every institution being successively, negatively impacted.
The single major psychological benefit of the conclusion of the deal, is the sense of relief that is over. People can finally situate themselves on either side of the regional fence.
This sense of relief in itself should be used as a catalyst for a breakthrough because it is time to admit that for Lebanon, the solution to the present presidential deadlock and the continuing disintegration of the state is as much an internal problem as it believed to be external one.
If a solution is to be found to this crisis it should be done as soon as possible while the momentum of relief is still present, because realistically, the impact of the nuclear deal itself will have minimal effect on Lebanon due to the existing power sharing structure which is already in place in the Ta’ef accord. It operates as a de facto “Triumvirate”- Regardless of whether we are able to elect a president or not, the seat is in essence for the Christians.
Furthermore, the questions on everybody’s mind are: Will Hezbollah gain strength as a result of this deal? The answer is: Hezbollah is already strong, and will the Sunni community be disenfranchised? The answer is: The Sunni community is institutionalized like every other confessional community in Lebanon, and therefore its rights protected.
On the matter of the presidency: Will it push the deputies to elect a president? Not unless the deal is like the Ta’ef or Doha accords where the name of a candidate was part of the overall settlement package. But the truth of the matter is, that even if the deal is cooked from the outside, it still has to be served “mezze-style” in Lebanon to satisfy everyone’s taste.
In conclusion: There are no more mirages in sight and we must face the blatant reality of our political drought and do something about this as Lebanese, or face breakdown...
The Liberal Democrats